Alex Keble analyses where the weekend's matches could be won and lost, including:
- Depleted Spurs host in-form Aston Villa
- Tough test awaits Ten Hag
- Luton desperate for home win
- Chelsea to close in on Newcastle?
- Tactical rethink by De Zerbi?
- Six-pointer between Sheff Utd and Bournemouth
See: How Arteta compares with Wenger ahead of 200th match
Villa need a plan for Spurs’ inverted full-backs
Back-to-back defeats for Tottenham Hotspur has had pundits hastily recalibrating expectations for the debut season of Ange Postecoglou and with injuries piling up, there is now a more reasonable view taken on their hopes for the campaign.
They are in a battle with Aston Villa, among others, for a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League, but even this could come under threat if Spurs’ losing streak continues for much longer.
That’s what makes the visit of Villa on Sunday arguably the most important match of the Postecoglou era so far.
The tactical battle will be fascinating. There is little doubt that Unai Emery – ever the reactive tactician, looking to exploit opposition weaknesses – will encourage Spurs' adventurous attacking football in the hope Villa can spring forward on the counter-attack. But the visitors might not get their way.
Much will depend upon whether Emery has a plan for Spurs' underlapping inverted full-backs: the secret weapon of Postecoglou’s unique formation.
See: Season trends: Inverted full-backs providing tactical flexibility
Prior to Cristian Romero’s red card, which altered the pattern of the 4-1 defeat to Chelsea in Spurs' last home match, Postecoglou’s side tore through the Chelsea team because nobody in Mauricio Pochettino’s formation was tracking Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro.
Spurs had a huge overload of numbers in the central column of the pitch, with Chelsea’s wide players Cole Palmer and Raheem Sterling unsure of whom to mark or where to stand.
Emery, by contrast, is likely to position the wingers in his own 4-4-2 – John McGinn and Youri Tielemans or Nicolo Zaniolo – to simply man-mark the Spurs full-backs when they dip infield.
This could shut down the centre and slow Spurs down, exacerbating the fluency issues already developing in the absence of James Maddison.
From here, Villa’s counters will come into play: McGinn has played the second-most successful through-balls in the Premier League this season, with five, while Ollie Watkins has made the most off-the-ball runs (405).
Of course, that’s only one way it could go. But whatever the outcome, the effectiveness of Postecoglou's dynamic full-backs promises to be defining.
See: The BIG review: What we've learned so far in the Premier League
Everton will fancy chances against Man Utd
Idrissa Gueye’s 86th-minute winner at Selhurst Park before the international break made it 10 points from the last five Premier League matches for Everton, signalling lift-off for the Sean Dyche era as the Toffees begin to score freely in his signature style.
That is reason enough to look forward to the visit of Manchester United on Sunday, but the club will be galvanised after the 10-point deduction imposed on Everton by an independent Commission during the international break.
It leaves them joint-bottom of the table on four points, plunging Everton back into the relegation battle, for now at least.
But their new league position does not alter the fact that Everton are one of the Premier League’s most in-form teams – and one a goal-shy United are likely to fear.
The Red Devils have scored only 13 times, the fewest of any of the current top 12, and what’s more, they have looked hesitant on the road this season, narrowly beating struggling sides Sheffield United, Burnley and Fulham by a single goal.
See: Boost for Man Utd as Shaw returns to training
Up against a stubborn defensive shell on Sunday, it seems unlikely United will find a higher gear.
Everton conceded just once against Arsenal and once against Brighton & Hove Albion at Goodison Park earlier this season, despite holding 26 per cent and 21 per cent possession respectively.
They know how to sit deep and frustrate even the more free-scoring sides. Man Utd are not one of those.
Then again, Dyche has only once previously beaten Man Utd – his Burnley side winning 2-0 at Old Trafford in January 2020 – while Burnley’s 1-1 draw in February 2022 was the first and only time a Dyche team has scored a home goal against them.
But this Everton team is a different beast - and expect Goodison Park to be rocking on Sunday.
Luton must seize opportunity at home
Ever since Luton Town sealed an unlikely promotion back in May supporters have been looking forward to that first-ever Premier League victory at Kenilworth Road.
Nobody thought they’d have to wait until February for that moment, but this nightmare scenario becomes a very real possibility should Luton fail to get three points against Crystal Palace.
After this weekend, their fixture list at Kenilworth Road reads: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea and Brighton, before they host Sheff Utd on 10 February.
Sadly for Luton fans, Palace are particularly strong on their travels. Since Roy Hodgson’s return, they have won five of their 11 away Premier League matches, which is as many as in their previous 28 such contests.
In fact, since their first away fixture in this run, only Man City, with six, have won more away matches than Palace.
Palace have also scored four goals in the two matches since Eberechi Eze returned from injury, while Luton’s Alfie Doughty – who has created eight chances for Carlton Morris this season, the third-most of any player in the Premier League to a single team-mate – faces a late fitness test.
The odds, it seems, are stacked against Luton. But fail to win and they could go the entire winter without tasting victory at Kenilworth Road.
Chelsea hoping to close in on Newcastle
As injuries ravage a Newcastle United team that’s gradually sliding away from the UEFA Champions League places, Chelsea, who began the season so poorly, appear to be reeling them in.
Victory for the Blues on Saturday would take them to within one point of the Magpies, all but closing the gap entirely and leaving Chelsea favourites to finish above Newcastle this season.
Eddie Howe has as many as 13 senior players missing this weekend, potentially including all three of the club’s centre-forwards, whose absences at AFC Bournemouth explain the 2-0 defeat and Newcastle’s Expected Goals (xG) of just 0.5, their second-lowest of the season so far.
This probably isn’t an ideal time, then, to be facing a Chelsea side that have scored four goals in three of their last five Premier League matches, a goalscoring run inspired in no small part by the changing fortunes of Nicolas Jackson.
Jackson scored just two goals from 24 shots in his first nine matches of the season, an eight per cent conversion rate, but has since netted four times in nine attempts across his last two outings for a much improved 44 per cent conversion rate.
Jackson's MW12 goal v Man City
Four in his last two! 👏 pic.twitter.com/FLpATaUlZr
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) November 12, 2023
Newcastle fans will take hope from the fact they have won each of their last four home matches in the competition without conceding a single goal, although Dan Burn has been added to the injury list since their most recent of these, a 1-0 success over Arsenal at the start of the month.
Victory for Chelsea would be an important symbolic moment in the contrasting recent fortunes of the two clubs. For Newcastle to avoid that fate, they need to be more defence-focused than ever.
De Zerbi needs to adapt to end winless run
Back in April, Nottingham Forest beat Brighton 3-1 at the City Ground despite recording a mere 24.8 per cent possession, and their crucial second goal – which gave them the lead – resulted from a tackle on the halfway line that put Danilo clean through on goal.
In retrospect it has become the archetypal Brighton defeat and following a six-match winless run in the Premier League, it is the archetypal tactical match-up that is undermining their progress under Roberto De Zerbi.
The problem is clear: De Zerbi’s exciting attacking football depends upon breaking at speed past teams who press onto them, whereas when up against a stubborn and immovable defensive blockade, Brighton run out of ideas.
This season, Brighton have won 10 points from five matches in which they have held less than 60 per cent possession (2.0 points per match) and nine points from seven matches when holding more than 60 per cent possession (1.29 points per game).
See: Club-by-club player injury list
They have also failed to win any of their three matches (v Fulham, West Ham United and Everton) in which they held above 70 per cent of the ball.
De Zerbi simply must find a way to play against ultra-low blocks or else Brighton will continue to go backwards, because with each passing week there is more evidence for opposition managers to pore over and conclude they should follow the Forest template.
Steve Cooper certainly won’t change tack on Saturday, and with Forest winning nine points from their opening five home league matches this season, supporters will be optimistic their team can cause an upset.
Six-pointer comes with both clubs on a high
You don’t normally get relegation six-pointers between teams in quite such good form. Between them, Sheff Utd and Bournemouth have won 10 points from their last six combined matches, raising hopes – in both camps – that a near-disastrous start to the season is behind them.
But one of them will most likely be plunged back into crisis territory, or at least brought back down to earth, at the final whistle this weekend.
Comparing their home and away form, Paul Heckingbottom seems the more likely to be celebrating on Saturday evening.
The Cherries are yet to win an away match in the Premier League this season, picking up a single point along the way.
Worse still, since the beginning of 2022/23, Bournemouth have conceded a division-high 60 away goals, and have conceded at least two goals in all five matches on the road this season.
Sheff Utd, meanwhile, were 2-1 winners over Wolverhampton Wanderers in their last home match, courtesy of a Oliver Norwood winner in the 10th minute of added time that ought to significantly change the atmosphere at Bramall Lane.
Norwood's MW12 winner v Wolves
Proper Sheffield United. pic.twitter.com/CcCM20oJ6W
— Sheffield United (@SheffieldUnited) November 5, 2023
Fans, and players, will breathe a little easier now.
Having followed that up with an impressive 1-1 draw at Brighton, the Blades should be confident of lifting themselves out of the bottom three.
